New Delhi: Global forecasting firm Oxford Economics on Tuesday revised India’s GDP (gross domestic product) growth forecast to 7.9 per cent from earlier 7.8 per cent for the current financial year 2021-22 (FY22), citing more durable recovery and higher Covid-19 vaccination rates.
Oxford Economics said, “We expect far less economic damage from the current outbreak compared to the first two waves of infections as the economy has adjusted to being more resilient to Covid-related disruptions.”
“The sharp increase in India’s Covid-19 cases has caused us to become more cautious about the Q1 (first quarter) outlook. We also look for a more durable recovery from Q2 (second quarter) onwards, when we expect more than 80 per cent of the population will be fully vaccinated,” the global forecasting firm added.
As per the government estimates, India could grow at 9.2 per cent in FY22 compared to a contraction of 7.3 per cent in the previous year. The number is slightly lower than the 9.5 per cent growth estimated by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI).
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and S&P also expected India to grow at 9.5 per cent. Moody’s Investors Service put India’s growth forecast at 9.3 per cent, and Fitch Ratings projected an 8.7 per cent expansion.
Many private economists have trimmed their growth forecasts for the current fiscal year amid a surge in Covid Omicron cases which could hurt consumer sentiment and economic activity.