since US Men’s National Team learned my way through world Cup Back on April 1st, almost everyone picked up the opening game wales as a victory. Wales, who had not qualified for the World Cup since 1964, were considered to be arguably the most defeated team in the group.
But it was much more than that: since the expansion of the World Cup to 32 teams in 1998, 84% of the teams that won their first group stage game eventually progressed to the knockout rounds.
Now while the USMNT failed to win thatinstead of settling for Wales drawn on Monday to start 2022 World CupNow what are their chances of moving forward? they have a match against England Is it necessary to win on Friday, or does he still have some room to go?
Predictions: What the projection models see after the USA draw
before the tournament, FiveThirtyEight’s Soccer Power Index Gave the USMNT a 53% chance of reaching the knockout rounds of the World Cup. Now that they have started the tournament with a draw with Wales, their chances have dropped to 45%.
Note that FiveThirtyEight’s SPI gives Wells only a 37% bad chance. The forecast is a measure of “overall team strength,” he says, with both attack and defense depicted as two key components. Based on that, SPI is not as confident in the Welsh team.
However, other models weren’t as keen on the prospect of the USMNT being kicked out of the group from the start. Alan Turing Institute in LondonFor example, the USMNT was given only a 36.1% chance of reaching the knockout stage before the tournament even started. The model hasn’t been updated since the USMNT arrived in Wales on Monday, but we’re sure the result didn’t take away those constraints.
Betting: what lies ahead for America
USMNT’s chances to win Group B have plummeted following their draw in Wales, falling from +10000 to +12500, but oddsmakers still think the Americans are likely to advance from the group stage at -115, According to FanDuel.
Prior to the Wales match, the USMNT were -118 to advance, meaning bookmaker confidence was strong at the start of the tournament and remains high following Monday’s draw for Wales.
The immediate concern for Greg Berhalter and Co is that England appear to be strong favorites at -175 for Friday’s match. Even draw (+290) has a higher chance of a United States of america Win (+490), according to Caesars Sportsbook.
It looks like it’s still not too risky to bet on the USMNT to reach the knockout rounds, but beyond that, err on the side of caution. The USMNT opened at 100-1 (or +10000) at Caesars to win the World Cup, but have now dropped to +12500, meaning their long chances just got even longer.
Breakthrough scenario: how many points does the United States need
Now it’s time to put on your thinking cap because we’re going to do a tiny bit Mathematics.
The USMNT currently sit on one point after their draw away to Wales, and between their upcoming games against England and Iran, they can get six more points in the group stage, with each win being worth three points. This means the USMNT’s best-case scenario now is a seven-point finish for the group stage.
Here’s where anything less than the full points available would put USMNT:
6 digits: With a one-point draw and a three-point win, the USMNT can’t really earn six points anymore, but it’s good historical context to know: no team in World Cup history has been eliminated from the group stage. has been done if he has scored at least six marks.
5 points: Also almost guaranteed to go to the knockouts. According to ESPN Stats & Info, in the current format of the four-team group stage, no team has earned five points and failed to advance. In all, 77 teams with five points safely advanced to the knockout stage.
4 digit: Moving forward becomes a bit of a toss-up here. According to ESPN Stats & Info, 17 out of 33 World Cup teams exited the group stage in the current tournament format with four points. With only one draw and one win, the USMNT’s path to the knockout rounds will depend a lot on other results in this scenario.
For example, in the last World Cup in 2018, two teams with four points (Argentina, Japan) were eliminated from the group, but two teams (Iran, Senegal) did not. Specifically, two teams sitting on four points, Japan And Senegal, were in the same group. Thus, a tiebreaker for “fair play points” – the team with fewer yellow cards and red cards through the group stage – determined who progressed regardless of goal difference and goals scored.
3 points: If the USMNT draw all three of their games in this World Cup, their chances of advancing to the knockouts are slim. Under the current format, only one of the 31 teams that finish the group stage with three points has advanced, according to ESPN Stats & Information. That lone incident happened in 1998, when Chile managed to finish behind ItalyWho scored seven points in Group B, one past Austria And camerooneach of whom finished with only two points.
2 digits or less: The USMNT’s World Cup will be over.
World Cup history: USA’s chances based on past trends
As we dig into World Cup history, let’s start here: According to ESPN Stats & Info, since 1998, 59% of teams that drew their opening games still advanced to the knockout rounds . 27 out of 46 teams progressed after the preliminary draw.
The USMNT would certainly love to win and will be part of the 84% of teams that win their first group game and advance – but at least they didn’t lose against Wales. Only 11% of the teams that lose their first game in the World Cup reach the knockouts.
Luis Miguel Echegaray says he would pick Brendan Aaronson over Christian Pulisic for the USA v England clash.
Trends matter, but history is not guaranteed to repeat itself at the World Cup. Who can forget when 2010 spain lost their World Cup opener in a shock from Switzerland, Spain immediately reformed and went on to win the tournament, albeit by a narrow margin along the way.
Then there’s the 1966 World Cup and England, the team the US faces in their second group game. England started with a scoreless draw Uruguay, at home on English soil, but they bounced back and eventually won the tournament. The World Cup was at the time much smaller with 16 teams compared to 32, but England still overcame less-than-ideal odds.
It is also worth highlighting the 1982 World Cup and the winners, Italy. The format was also different from what we see today with only 24 teams competing, but Italy did not win a single game in the four-team group stage and still won the World Cup. Three draws for Italy and they kept going.
On the other hand, perhaps it will be better for the Americans if history repeats itself: The US entered the round-of-16 knockout stage at the 2010 World Cup after drawing the opening game to England. Clearly, all hope is not yet lost – at least historically.